Jenson Button as world champion?

Don't laugh, it could happen – according to one seasoned Formula One observer, who also says he wouldn't be surprised if Canada gets its Grand Prix back sooner rather than later.

The "seasoned observer" is Gerald Donaldson, a Canadian journalist and author of two dozen books on F1. He knows of what he speaks and has been writing and talking about it for more than three decades.

For years, Donaldson has also been a mainstay on TSN's coverage of F1 races (and on the CBC before that). However, because there is no Canadian GP this year, or any real "Canadian content" in F1 generally, TSN has dropped its long-running F1 pre-race show starring Donaldson and anchor Vic Rauter in favour of a package from the BBC.

Since those guys won't be able to give us their pre-season predictions on the air any more, why not have Donaldson do it in the pages of Wheels?

So here's how Donaldson and — since it's my column — I think things are going to pan out in F1 this season.

Q.: Given the international economic situation, do you think F1 will finish the season with the same number of cars they have to start it?

G.D.: Most of the cutbacks have been announced. The Royal Bank of Scotland and ING are cutting back but everybody is really trying to make it through the season. Jenson Button, for instance, has taken a cut of half his salary and Jackie Stewart is working for the equivalent of a dollar. I think everybody will do whatever's necessary to stay in. And by the time next November rolls around, the recovery should be going.

N.M.: Boards of directors and really rich guys have pulled plugs without warning before. I hope they all make it through but I won't be surprised if a team like Toro Rosso or Force India just disappears.

Q.: Will Canada get its Grand Prix back?

G.D.: I think it will happen. There is a new Formula One teams organization (FOTA) and they are on record as saying that one of their prime objectives is to get a race in the United States back on the calendar. If that happens, it follows that a Canadian race would be a logical second step. You know, it sounds self-serving to say it, but Canada was always the most popular race on the calendar. The Europeans loved coming to Montreal. It was a wonderful stop on the tour.

N.M.: Like everybody else, I want the race to come back. But at what price?

The GP in Australia is costing the organizers $45 million per race! There is not that kind of corporate money in Canada and if governments agreed to spend that, there really would be a rebellion. So I think we've seen our last Canadian Grand Prix.

Q. Who do you think will win the world championship?

G.D.: You know, six or seven of these drivers could win the championship but I like Felipe Massa. He's a likeable guy with a tremendous race passion.

I also would like to see somebody out of the blue. Robert Kubica, for instance. That would be good. Another victory for (Lewis) Hamilton would be okay.

Jenson Button seems to have a very good car in the Brawn GP. This could be his big chance to really deliver.

N.M.: I think the fight between Massa and (Kimi) Raikkonen will be the highlight of the year.

I think Ferrari will dominate and everybody else will be driving for third place after those two guys.

And I think Raikkonen will take the fight to Massa and win in the end.

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Diffusers, KERS at issue

Two issues have dominated the headlines heading into Australia – the KERS (Kinetic Energy Recovery System) and diffusers.

The diffusers (a rear section of a car's underbody that improves the aerodynamics) on the Williams, Toyota and Brawn GP cars are radically different from those on all the others and protests over their legality are being led by Red Bull.

It's disappointing to see the teams slide back into their old quarrelsome ways so quickly. KERS, meantime, is a process to recover and store a car's kinetic energy when the vehicle is under braking and is legal this season. The driver can release the energy at the touch of a button (like Champ Car's "push-to-pass" device). In fact, the amount of energy recovery allowed for 2009 will give a driver an extra 80 horsepower for 6.67 seconds and this is expected to assist in passing. But the system is expensive and complicated and, at time of writing, only BMW and Ferrari planned to run with it in place at Australia.

So the first race of the season could very well come down to a fight between those two marques.

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The Grand Prix of Australia pre-race can be seen at 1:30 a.m. tomorrow on Speed. The race is expected to start at 2 a.m. on TSN and Speed. TSN will repeat it at 8 a.m.

nmcdonald@thestar.ca