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EV enthusiasm may have perverse side effects
At a meeting in Spain this week, the continent's industry ministers adopted a strategy to promote battery power.
Thanks to much higher gas prices, the Old World has for years lapped North America in the fuel-efficiency race. Recently, its determination to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has propelled it even further ahead.
But now, as it appears set to stomp on the electric accelerator, a new report calls for a rethink, and offers lessons for us.
The three environment groups that commissioned the study don't oppose electric cars. Their message is simply that battery power isn't perfect, and some measures intended to promote it might actually make things worse.
Europe's plan combines emission cuts in gasoline and diesel cars with a boost for electrics.
Even with compromises to appease the heavyweight likes of Daimler-Benz, the targets for internal-combustion vehicles are aggressive.
(This gets confusing, because Europe measures emissions – the number of grams of carbon produced for every kilometre driven – while we calculate fuel consumption – how many litres of gasoline used per 100 km driven.)
European manufacturers must get average carbon emissions from all the cars they sell down to 130 grams per kilometre by 2015. That's equivalent to about 5.5 L/100 km, which is better than the standard the United States has set – and which Canada will slavishly follow – of 6.7 L/100 km by 2016.
Europe then calls for a further drop to 95 grams, or 4.0 L/100 km, by 2020.
These limits are promoting innovation and driving down emissions. Europe's average is already equal to our proposed target for 2016.
But the push for electric vehicles could slow this progress, the report states: "It does seem reasonable to conclude that ... fuel efficiency improvements may be slower with (electric cars) than without them" because "the sales of (electrics) allow car manufacturers to increase the emissions of (internal combustion vehicles) that are sold, while still meeting the emissions targets."
How does that work?
At 130 grams of carbon per kilometre, 10 internal combustion vehicles would emit a total of 1,300 grams. Exchange one of them for an electric vehicle, rated at zero emissions, and the other nine can average 144 grams.
Even worse, for the next six years, Europe is to grant "super credits" for electric cars. Initially, each will count as 3.5 vehicles with zero emissions. By 2016, the credit will drop to 1.5. After that, it stays at one for one.
The result is that the more electric cars sold, the less efficient the gas and diesel versions have to be.
On top of that, the regulations incorrectly assume electric vehicles aren't responsible for any carbon emissions. True, they don't spew exhaust, but it takes energy to charge their batteries, and unless it's generated entirely by wind, water or solar power – which isn't close to the case anywhere – producing energy puts greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
An accurate measurement requires calculating both the impacts of producing fuel and consuming it. It's called "well to wheel" analysis. Based on current sources, producing gasoline and diesel fuel is more than twice as energy-efficient as generating and delivering electricity.
"Well to wheel," if the electricity comes from coal-burning power stations – as much of it does in "green" Germany and Eastern Europe – electric cars are actually more polluting than modern internal-combustion versions. With a typical mix of sources, battery power produces about half the emissions of gasoline.
Europe's regulations ignore that contribution. Ours shouldn't. Which means our emissions targets shouldn't allow special credits for electric vehicles, and going electric only makes sense if the electricity comes from renewable sources.
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