Financial incentives key to fighting global warming
MERIDA, Mexico - While on non-car business here in the capital of the Mexican state of Yucatan, I couldn't help but notice that when taxi drivers line up to await fares, they turn off their engines, and when it's time to move ahead a few metres, they simply push their cars.
They're not aiming to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and save us from climate change. They're cutting costs. The recession and swine flu have hurt business. Gas is expensive. They can't afford to burn cash for no reason.
The cabbies aren't making a detectable difference to the amount of carbon entering the atmosphere. They are, however, proving a point made in a new book by California researchers Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon. It's called Two Billion Cars, the title referring to the not-distant future when Earth will be home to double its current number of vehicles.
The planet's environment can't cope with that many if they remotely resemble those on the road now and, if we're to believe most of the world's climate scientists, we must be quick about change.
The California duo argue it won't be enough to encourage auto manufacturers to alter their vehicles and fuels: people must want to buy them. And that's going to be a tough sell.
"The world is still in denial about the staggering challenge it faces and the radical transformation it must undertake," the authors say. "Without an incentive to alter their habits, consumers tend to maintain the status quo, even when aware of adverse impacts."
Climate change is too abstract and remote to motivate most people. The majority will respond only to concrete, immediate benefits.
Assuming technology can't be imposed, the book offers a list of schemes to promote green cars, some already tried – very cautiously – in a few places, others not:
Extra charges or punitive taxes on gas guzzlers and rebates for fuel sippers.
Cash payments for electric vehicles or hybrids.
Lower insurance rates or "pay as you drive" schemes that reward those who cut their car use.
Special access to high-occupancy lanes, free parking or free use of toll roads such as Hwy. 407.
Fuel taxes indexed to carbon content.
A carbon tax to raise the cost of gasoline, or a variable tax that would keep the price from dropping below a certain minimum.
Then the authors enter the murky and spooky world of carbon budgets – allotting set amounts of carbon consumption to individuals, cities or companies. All would be required to keep track of their emissions and reduce them by whatever percentage is decreed.
For local governments, it would mean steps like curbing suburban sprawl and supporting more dense development.
Individuals might help to meet their budget by buying more efficient or non-gas vehicles and using them less. Everyone would get the same amount, stored on an electronic card. Like cap and trade on a small scale, those who exceed their budget would have to pay handsomely for additional credits; those below could sell their extras.
Free parking and other incentives are nice, but wouldn't be enough. It's essential to impose economic costs but, as we've seen repeatedly, most people – in their role as voters – oppose increases substantial enough to do the job. So politicians flee from such measures as if there were speeding Hummers bearing down on them. Carbon budgets would be something else again.
In a classic understatement, the authors admit, "it will take some time for consumers to become comfortable with the idea of carbon budgets."
But while we talk about changing car technology, we also have to consider human behaviour. And if we demonstrate that financial benefit is the main motivator, these concepts – daft or Draconian – might be our destination.
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