Kenzie on Detroit: Riding a wave of optimism

DETROIT – The North American International Auto Show, as it's officially named, always has a few surprises.

The weather is usually cold, windy, snowy, or all of the above.

It was a bit brisk on the first press day this week, but sunny and crisp on the second day.

It's always a surprise when Cobo Hall does not fall down. Controlled demolition is probably the only answer for this drafty, ugly, noisy old barn.

Yet my first impression when I walked in this past Monday was that it looked quite nice and bright – maybe there's new lighting, some new stands.

I was expecting the mood to be sombre, too. Yet at most of the press presentations, the executives seemed remarkably upbeat.

"Our sales were only down nine per cent!'' qualified as optimism here.

At least two of the three domestic companies had good moments. Ford became only the third company in the history of the North American Car / Truck of the Year awards to win both – the Fusion hybrid for car, the Transit Connect for truck.

And my reading of the consensus of the assembled reporters was that the most impressive debutante was the Cadillac XTS Platinum Concept.

This car was clearly too well-developed to be a mere concept, although everyone from Cadillac general manager Bryan Nesbitt on down refused to confirm or deny production plans.

But the mid-size STS and full-size DTS are both well past their best-buy dates, and the XTS could replace both.

Nesbitt also would not hint at what platform XTS is based on. But the wheelbase is identical to that of the Buick LaCrosse, as is the 3.6-litre V6 direct injection engine and four-wheel-drive system, so that's a pretty good clue.

The XTS has a hybrid electric module for added performance, with plug-in capability to take advantage of off-peak lower-cost electricity.

I don't know that the production vehicle will be a plug-in hybrid – my guess is no – but as I noted in my blogs from the show floor this past week, you can bet the mortgage it will be produced.

There have been rumours that whatever the production version of this car will be called it might be assembled in GM's Oshawa factory. Given that Oshawa currently assembles Impala and Camaro, not LaCrosse, it doesn't appear to have the advantage of shared technology, but you never know.

The news wasn't quite as evidently cheery at the Chrysler stand. They had no formal press conference at all. Their story was that they had nothing new to offer so why put up the money (and take up our time) with meaningless blather?

I wish certain other car companies followed that lead.

But Chrysler is now part of a big happy Italian family. Its stand was fresh, and adorned with various Fiat, Lancia and Maserati models, which I hope will whet the appetite of the North American consumer.

Chrysler is now in the hands of the rumpled sometimes-Canadian Sergio Marchionne, who (like me 20 years ago) realized that a suit and tie is just about the stupidest garb you can wear to an auto show unless you're looking for a job.

Marchionne performed a minor miracle, coming out of left field (that is, no experience in the car industry) a few years ago to rescue Fiat. It is arguable whether Chrysler is a bigger or lesser challenge than Fiat, but at least the man has a fabulous track record.

There seemed to be good crowds at most of the press events, although the lack of chairs at some of them almost guaranteed standing-room only. One public relations guy told me it cost something like $81 to rent each chair from the show venue. At that rate, we can stand.

Still, for all the pleasant surprises, Detroit faces some serious challenges.

First, motor shows are under attack everywhere, as marketers find that everything from a stronger Internet presence, to TV and movie placement deals, to incentives are better ways to get bums in seats, and their product into the public eye.

The big British show at Birmingham is gone. There were rumours that if one more company pulled out of Tokyo last fall it would have been cancelled. Next month's Toronto show has chopped the Rogers Centre out of the floor plan.

Detroit continues to suffer from dropouts, with several prominent carmakers taking a pass: some mainstream, like Nissan (apart from on the "Electric Avenue"), Infiniti, Mitsubishi and Suzuki; some more exotic but crowd-pleasing, like Porsche and Ferrari.

And there weren't really a huge number of important product launches this year.

This was partly due to the downturn the car industry has faced for the past couple of years. Some production plans have been shelved or postponed, and there is precious little budget for glamorous concept cars these days.

But the bigger menace is the resurgence of the Los Angeles Show, which now precedes Detroit by six weeks, thereby stealing much of its thunder.

Detroit also can no longer make as strong a claim to being "Motor City" as, say L.A. (or even Washington, D.C., given that two of the Big Three now have their "head offices" there).

And of course, L.A. in November is a hell of a lot nicer place to be than Detroit in – well, any time, really, but especially in January.

Is there long-term hope for Detroit?

With my sorry history as a prognosticator, I'm not even going to make a guess.

But I suggest that the show organizers do have their work cut out.

jim@jimkenzie.com

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