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ASHVILLE, N.C.–Nobody gets it right every time. Not even – gasp! – me.
But I have seldom got it more wrong than I did with the Ford Freestyle, and its sister sedan, the 500, when they launched in 2004.
The Freestyle, a precursor to the crossover craze, looked like a cleaner, classier Ford Explorer, which was among the most popular vehicles in North America at the time. It had as much or more functionality.
And because it was built on a Volvo platform, it rode and handled much better, got way better fuel economy, and was much safer.
How could it miss?
But miss it did, at least its sales targets.
Those who bought one, like my neighbour, loved it all to heck – there just weren't enough of them.
The 500 was a handsome car, especially in dark colours. But it wasn't the most eye-catching; some even called it bland.
My comment at the time was that Ford chief stylist J Mays only ever had one sedan, the previous-generation VW Jetta (the round one; he worked for them back then).
Scale it up to 110 per cent, there's your VW Passat.
Scale it up to 120 per cent, there's your Ford 500.
Now, blandness works for Toyota, but other brands need to do more.
Neither I nor Ford could figure out at the time why these cars failed so spectacularly.
Yes, the 3.0 litre V6, the only engine available at launch, was a bit weak. By the time the stronger 3.5-litre came along, it was too late.
The continuously variable transmission (CVT), a proven fuel-saver, was pilloried by most of the media (not me) and most prospective customers.
Renaming the pair the Taurus X (Freestyle) and Taurus (500) a couple of years ago didn't help.
Subsequent deep-dive market research on 500 owners and, more important, non-buyers, suggested that those who were interested in full-size sedans didn't want them for domestic purposes.
"If I want to haul my family around, I'll buy a crossover or SUV.''
You mean like Freestyle?
"Well, um, no. But not a sedan."
Turns out they wanted a car for the reasons Mercedes-Benz S-class and BMW 7-series owners buy big sedans:
"It's all about me. I want a car for me to drive, that reflects how successful I've become, that has all the latest technology to support my personal and professional lives.
"And if I do want to take family, friends or associates with me, it has to have a big enough back seat.''
This then became the recipe for the new Taurus.
The X/Freestyle would not be replaced. Never mind that at least in Canada in 2008, it outsold the sedan handily.
Ford figures that those particular prospects will be happier in an Edge.
One of new Ford boss Alan Mullaly's early decisions was to make the Taurus into a flagship for the Ford brand.
And bring it out a year ahead of the initial schedule, never mind near-bankruptcy, restructuring, mortgaging every paper clip in the joint.
Pete Reyes was assigned the task of chief engineer.
He was also assigned the task of riding shotgun with me on the Taurus preview drive.
How did he get this plum gig? Doing the Taurus, I mean?
"I had just finished the F-Series SuperDuty pickup, which had gone well. Although I had been in truck for quite a while, I wasn't totally unfamiliar with cars, and the industry-leading position we have in trucks is where we want to be with this car.
"I am also familiar with the digital development tools we were going to have to use to bring this thing in on time – it was our first truly all-digital car, and we only had one set of metal prototypes instead of two or three.
"But mostly,'' he added modestly, "I was available!''