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Jim Kenzie for the Toronto Star
The Mazda Premacy, left, and the RX-8, are converted here to hydrogen power.
Laguna Seca, Calif.–In comedy, they say timing is everything. So it is with future vehicle technology, too.
As in, what's going to be the motive power of the future?
That depends on how far down the road – you should pardon the expression – you're looking.
The world is running out of oil, because there are no more dinosaurs dying by the millions, hence production has stopped.
But known oil reserves are actually increasing, as improved detection and drilling techniques give access to formerly unavailable deposits. Plus, higher prices now make previously uneconomic deposits viable.
So although we'll run out in the long term, it begs the question: how long are the short- and medium-terms? And how do we get from here to there?
Most experts believe that until 2020, and probably 2050, the main motive power for our cars will be the internal combustion engine. Fuelled, most likely, by gasoline.
The car industry, however, has to hedge its bets, work on various alternatives, and try to plan for what is an unknowable future.
So at this famous race track near Monterey this week, Mazda vouchsafed its general direction and provided a few specifics.
Seita Kanai, head of research and development for Mazda in Hiroshima, used a triangle to represent the car market.
At the moment, the very tip consists of hybrids: only about 2 per cent of the North American market, despite their massive hype.
Diesel has about twice that share, even in the supposedly diesel-hating U.S. And even both of those technologies are petroleum-based.
Pure electrics from Nissan and General Motors will arrive some time next year. But even by 2015, all pure electrics and plug-in hybrids combined will still account for a mere fraction of the market.
Kanai feels the right thing to do is try to make significant gains in fuel consumption that can benefit the large mass of customers – those who occupy the bottom 90-odd per cent of that triangle.
Those gains will come mainly in what he calls "base technology."
As I have often said, the most remarkable thing about recent engine developments hasn't been any of a number of revolutionary ideas, but the fact that engineers are still extracting double-digit percentage improvements in performance, economy and emissions from the 150-year old internal combustion engine concept.
Mazda has been on the forefront of that effort. Its so-called DISI (Direct Injection, Spark Ignition) turbo engine is one of the most modern in the world. Just about every other carmaker is going in a similar direction.
But Mazda feels the best is yet to come. It is already testing a new family of gasoline engines that will return up to 30 per cent improved fuel consumption by 2015, in time for the next-generation Mazda3.
It also has a new diesel under test that will meet the much more stringent emissions standards of the near future, which most carmakers say are unattainable. And it will be less costly than current oil-burners.
This I really want to see.
Kanai was understandably coy about details, but he has never lied to me before...
Mazda also has a new six-speed automatic transmission that Kanai says will have the driving feel of a dual-clutch gearbox, but will enable the engine to deliver even better economy. Again, details are scarce.
But we know today's heat engines only convert 30 to 35 per cent of the energy of their fuel into motion; there's a lot still left to capture.
These new engines can, of course, be married to electrification technologies such as hybrid power trains, deceleration/brake energy regeneration, and idle-stop systems. Mazda is already selling its "i-stop" idle-shut-off system in Japan. Unlike most such systems, this one does not involve the starter motor.
At idle, the engine shuts off. By knowing which piston stopped on the compression stroke, all the engine management computer has to do is squirt in some fuel, fire the spark plug, and pow! – it's running again.
So far, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hasn't rewarded this system with a sufficiently-better city fuel economy number, so that Mazda could brag about it.
i-stop would do wonders on L.A.'s freeways, but not so much in downtown Des Moines, so the EPA is reluctant to generate the unrealistic expectations that it used to do for hybrids before the protocols were revised recently. Still, I expect you will see i-stop in North American vehicles within a year or two.
Further down the line, Mazda is working with its legendary Wankel rotary engine, currently only used in the RX-8 sports coupe, but running on hydrogen.
Hydrogen is extremely volatile and combustible; hence, it is very susceptible to pre-ignition, which can be caused by hot surfaces inside the cylinder.
In a rotary, however, the intake port for the fuel is a long way from the ultra-hot combustion chamber, relative to a piston engine. Cooler intake, less pre-ignition.
Hence, a rotary is well-suited to this most environmentally-friendly of fuels (burn hydrogen and your only output is water).
I drove a hydrogen-powered Wankel-engined Miata almost 15 years ago; I remember it was very quick, but suffered from a great deal of backfiring.
Today, Mazda is building a series of hydrogen rotary RX-8s, primarily for a Norwegian test fleet.
These are dual-fuel vehicles: a small secondary fuel tank, a second injector, and a dashboard changeover switch allows the car to run on either hydrogen or gasoline. This reduces the range-anxiety that would occur when you are unable to find a source of hydrogen.
A boot around the access roads of Laguna Seca proved that the concept does work. Idle quality and engine note are different. Not worse, just different.
Hydrogen has less energy than gasoline, so power and torque (never a strength for the Wankel anyway) are reduced. Getting underway on an uphill grade was distinctly difficult, requiring considerable clutch slippage.
To make it apples-to-apples, Mazda detunes the car so that power output using gasoline is roughly the same as with hydrogen. To be commercially viable, the car would need to be quicker than this. Lower first and second gear ratios would help low-end performance.
Another vehicle I tested here shows another step along the path to hydrogen – a Premacy (Mazda5 van in our market) converted into a hydrogen-hybrid.
Using a power flow schematic remarkably similar to the Chevrolet Volt, the car is always driven by an electric motor, with juice coming from a lithium-ion battery. If that loses charge, a hydrogen-fuelled rotary engine fires up and sends power to the drive motor. Excess power, along with brake regeneration, is directed to the battery.
Driving this car took some acclimatization, and not just because it was right-hand drive (every time I had to turn left, I flicked on the wipers...).
Engine rpm level is totally independent of road speed. Only when the car needs extra power does it spring, quite loudly, into life.
It's certainly weird to hear it revving merrily away while the road speed doesn't change. But again, it works.
A small fleet of hydrogen-hybrid Premacys is now in the hands of various private and government-agency fleets in Japan, testing both the technical aspects of the concept and consumer acceptance thereof.
Mazda expects this is how we will eventually get to pure hydrogen cars – a step-wise approach, using various technologies building upon one another.
I think it's right.
How will the timing work out? We'll have to wait and see.
Travel for freelance writerJim Kenzie was providedby the automaker.jim@jimkenzie.com