Got a hybrid yet? You will soon
LARRY DOWNING/REUTERS
Hybrids come in many forms, including the mostly electric Chevrolet Volt concept.
Its forecast is unambiguous, boldly stating that: "All new vehicles in 2020 will have some level of hybridization."
Such a dramatic prediction might be dismissed as unrealistic if it were just the musings of some ivory-tower think-tank. But in this case, it comes from the industry itself.
To generate its report, called "Automotive 2020: Clarity beyond the chaos," IBM interviewed 125 executives representing automotive manufacturers, suppliers and influential third parties in 15 countries, including those with rapidly growing automotive markets.
The interviews covered 85 per cent of the top auto companies worldwide, based on revenue, and included all of the top 10.
While companies such as Toyota have publicly stated their intent to offer hybrid versions of all models in the coming years, the forecast of 100 per cent hybridization by 2020 goes well beyond most stated expectations for the industry as a whole.
The key phrase in that forecast is "some level of hybridization." It doesn't necessarily mean hybrids as we generally understand them today.
Hybrid is a broad term applied to any combination of two different power train types – typically a combination of gasoline engine and electric motor, supported by a battery pack for energy storage.
But there are multiple levels of hybridization.
At one extreme are micro hybrids, which involve little more than a higher-capacity battery pack and starter motor/generator to enable an automatic stop-start capability and perhaps incorporate some degree of regenerative braking.
General Motors' Belt-Alternator-Starter hybrid systems, used in such vehicles as the Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid and the Saturn Aura and Vue Green Line hybrids, is the closest thing to a micro-hybrid currently on the market here. It does go a bit further than the most basic systems, though, by providing some electric motor assist to the gasoline engine.
Some true micro-hybrids are already on the market in Europe and Japan. By shutting off the internal-combustion engine whenever the vehicle comes to a stop, they can provide significant reductions in fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions – particularly in city driving – at a relatively low cost.
Consequently, such systems are likely to find widespread application in the coming years, as fuel-consumption and CO2 emission regulations become increasingly more stringent.
At the other end of the spectrum are full hybrids, which can be powered either individually or in combination by both the gas engine and electric motor, depending on driving conditions. The Ford Escape Hybrid and Toyota Prius are current examples of full hybrids.
In between are mild hybrids, which go further than micro-hybrids by providing electric motor power to assist the gas engine in high load conditions, such as hard acceleration or hill-climbing, but cannot operate on electric power alone. The first-generation Honda Civic Hybrid was a typical example of a mild hybrid.
As technologies evolve, the distinctions between the three types are becoming more blurred, and they are likely to become even more so as vehicles such as the Chevrolet Volt come to market (tentatively late in 2010).
Unlike today's hybrids, in which there is a direct mechanical connection between the gas engine (and in some cases the electric motor) and the wheels – a parallel hybrid configuration – the Volt uses a series-hybrid configuration. That is, its gas engine is not connected to the wheels, but simply drives a generator to charge the battery pack and power the electric motor.
Further, in the case of the Volt, its batteries can be recharged by plugging into the electrical power grid, which means it can initially run as a pure electric vehicle before the hybrid system goes into operation. Toyota and Ford also plan to offer plug-in hybrids in the near future.
Beyond those levels of hybridization, hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles are still future possibilities, albeit probably in very small volumes by 2020. But even they are likely to be hybrids, with on-board battery packs to store energy to supplement the power developed by the fuel cell in high-load situations.
With all these combinations considered hybrids, it's little wonder the IBM report could make such a bold prediction.
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