Cloudy future requires a clear transport vision

Apr 18, 2009

I would not want to be a car manufacturer.

While current economic times might appear to be the largest gorilla banging down the garage door, it's bigger than that. Tie in all the factors, and I don't think there has ever been a more humbling time to make predictions.

Consider the concept of Zero Oil. Forget the price today or next year, what if it isn't available at any price? So the move to electric seems long overdue. Except we already have a whole sector of electric cars, most of them registered as LSVs – low speed vehicles. Now, manufacturers are finding ways to make some of them zip along nicely at speeds up to 125 km/h.

Electricity has to come from somewhere, so the nuclear/wind/coal debate swings into action here. That energy has to be stored in a battery, so enter the environmental demands of sourcing previously little-mentioned resources that such production requires.

A current stumble for existing electrics, as well as incarnations of the original Segway and GM's recent PUMA unveiling, are the legalities of merging so many different species on a single transportation system. If you want a taste of road animosity, ask a cyclist what they think of drivers. Now ask a driver what they think of cyclists.

I read, along with most of you, the recent conclusions by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety that small cars – really small ones, like the Smart Car – are doomed in a head-on crash with a "regular" sized car. Well, anyone with a modicum of knowledge about physics knew that couldn't end well. But lighter, smaller cars are a foregone conclusion. And while I don't want to die in one, I sure don't want to kill somebody driving one, either.

What do we do? Outlaw the new generation? Outlaw the old one? We've now got laws to try to make trucks play nicely with cars, and bike lanes are popping up all over. Commuter lanes are a hit, and prove that designating roadways can work. I think we should be ready to institute and respect more of them. Maybe if engine size and capability were to dictate lane usage, we could keep from killing each long enough for insurance companies to stop hacking us to bits with their premiums.

Most intense urban settings would be approaching Utopia without the clog of traditional cars. Just over a year ago, a parking spot in Manhattan was going for $225,000. Finding a place to park in most cities is something factored into the trip time, as well as the budget. When did the care and feeding of something meant to get us from A to B become more expensive than raising a kid?

Many of us gripe about the absence of vision in the automotive industry. While it's admittedly easy to pluck that fruit, a couple of steps back are all it takes to realize the complexity of the issue: we need city layouts that make sense for the advanced technologies we demand. We need to let go of long held mindsets that the only thing that matters is personal gratification. And we need leaders in all sectors – automotive, political, financial, community and environmental – to be, well, leaders.

Future transportation models will have to accommodate more factors than ever before, and consumers will have to do more than just consume.

Lorraine Sommerfeld's column appears Saturday in Wheels and Mondays in Living. www.lorraineonline.ca

Toronto Star