End of an engine's era?
No year-end tradition is more futile than that of trying to predict the future. There's just too much that can go awry.
Nevertheless, we can't resist peeking into the crystal ball at the automotive outlook, which appears to be relatively clear this year. The clouds of uncertainty are dispersing and the industry's direction is becoming more focused – though there's still plenty of opportunity for divergence.
It seems safe to suggest, however, that history will look back on this period as a turning point – perhaps even a tipping point. If not 2008 itself, then the next two- or three-year period, at least.
History may see this as a time like 1912, when the introduction of the electric starter helped tilt the balance toward internal combustion engines, eventually making them the dominant automotive powerplants for at least the following century.
Now the balance is beginning to shift in the other direction. While the internal combustion engine will be dominant for years – probably even decades – to come, it will no longer monopolize the automotive world.
The big prediction: beginning now, the pendulum is reversing direction. The internal combustion engine is about to be severely challenged, perhaps ultimately displaced, by electric propulsion systems that will come in many guises.
Drive better electrically
That movement is already under way. Although it has taken 10 years, gasoline-electric hybrids are now an accepted part of our vehicle mix – though still a small part (less than 2 per cent of the total market).
That figure is set to take a big jump in 2008, however, with as many as 10 new hybrids arriving on the market, including vehicles using new "two-mode" hybrid technology jointly developed by General Motors, the former DaimlerChrysler and BMW.
That big push will be followed by even more hybrid variations, including one from Honda developed from the ground up as a hybrid rather than adapted from an existing model.
And, in short order, we will see plug-in hybrids, which will extend the range of all-electric vehicles well beyond that of today's models, further reducing their fuel consumption.
Perhaps the biggest single step in the near term will come in 2010 when GM is scheduled to introduce a production version of its Volt concept car.
A plug-in hybrid of sorts (a series hybrid in pure technical terms), it eliminates any mechanical connection between its relatively small internal combustion engine and its wheels, which are driven only by an electric motor. The engine serves only to drive a generator, providing electricity to the motor and an on-board battery pack.
So different is the concept from that of a "conventional" hybrid that GM refers to it as a range-extended EV (electric vehicle) rather than a hybrid – with the combustion engine serving as the range extender.
One of the beauties of the E-Flex system, as the powertrain architecture is known, is that it is readily adaptable to different forms of on-board electrical production.
A diesel engine could be used in place of the gasoline engine, or the whole combustion engine-generator module could be replaced with a fuel cell. Concept-car variations on the Volt have demonstrated both possibilities.
While GM has been the most forthcoming in making its developments and plans public, many if not most major auto makers are moving in the same direction, so the Volt and its derivatives will almost certainly have direct competition in a relatively short time.
The direction is inevitable
How can we be sure such concepts are not just flights of fancy designed to titillate our imaginations but remain forever out of reach? That they will eventually become production realities?
Because there is little choice.
While North America has been slow to respond, the global movement to reduce greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, has reached a critical mass; the reduction must happen.
While automobiles are not the dominant contributors of carbon dioxide, they are significant contributors, so they must play a role in its reduction.
Cutting their carbon dioxide output means reducing the combustion of hydrocarbons – specifically petroleum-based fuels. To that end, the U.S. just passed a law requiring a 40 per cent decreasein the average fuel consumption of new vehicles by 2020, and Canada is expected to follow suit.
Such a dramatic reduction in what is, for the automotive industry, a relatively short time will require much more than just evolutionary tinkering. It will require a dramatic rethinking of vehicle design.
Significantly reducing vehicle mass is one alternative, but doing so would almost certainly mean major reductions in vehicle size – a prescription the North American driving public is unlikely to accept, based on past experience.
The adoption of clean-diesel technology will help some, but it remains to be seen whether the public here will fully embrace that European solution.
The other ready alternative is to substitute electrical for petroleum energy in at least part of the vehicle fleet, which is why we are so confident in this prediction.
What about hydrogen?
For many auto makers, the electrification of the powertrain is not just about cutting fuel consumption in the near- and medium-term, it is an inevitable step in the progression towards a hydrogen-powered fuel-cell vehicle. And for many, that ambition remains the ultimate goal.
While there are many issues to overcome, including how to produce and distribute hydrogen in an environmentally sound manner, progress on the vehicle side is advancing rapidly.
Both Honda and General Motors are in the process of building at least 100 "production" fuel-cell vehicles each, for distribution to private "customers" this year.
Honda's will be based on the FCX Clarity shown recently at the Los Angeles auto show. GM's will be based on the Chevrolet Equinox.
The prospects for mass production of such vehicles depend on a lot of factors beyond the control of the auto companies alone.
But it does seem likely their time will come, and that when it does the industry will be ready. Just don't hold us to a time-line prediction.
In the meantime, start thinking about an additional electric outlet in your garage. Chances are good that you will soon need it.
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